Trump Gaining Momentum Weeks Before Election
Your weekly News Memo - a more human way to engage with the news.
+ GetSmart: The Minnesota Pumpkin That Weighs 2,471 Pounds đ
Newsbites
Contraception - Breast Cancer Study: A new study published in JAMA this week found the use of hormonal intrauterine devices (IUDs) was connected with an increased likelihood of breast cancer. The study found that IUD use over at least five years was associated with a 40% increased occurance of breast cancer. Although it has been known for a long period of time that there is a positive correlation between oral contraception and breast cancer, some researchers had hypothesized IUDs brought little to no increased risk of breast cancer as the amount of hormones released was lower than the birth control pill and was released directly into the uterus.
More: The study took place in Denmark and included more than 150,000 womenNASA launched a mission this week to explore one of Jupiterâs moons, Europa. The purpose of the mission is to see if Europa has habitable living conditions. The moon is suspected to have an ocean as deep as 80 miles, below a surface of ice. The space vehicle is called the Europa Clipper, which is about the size of a basketball court when its solar panel-covered wings are extended. The Clipper is expected to arrive in April 2030 after the 1.8 billion mile journey. The instruments on board, such as radar, are enclosed inside vaults made of zinc and aluminum to protect them from the intense radiation that emanates from Jupiter.
Boeing said it could raise up to $25B through a combination of debt or equity over the next three years to shore up its balance and provide liquidity as needed. In addition, the company said it had reached an agreement with a syndicate of banks for a $10B loan facility for any near-term liquidity needs. On Friday (Oct. 11), Boeingâs new CEO announced the company would lay off 10% of its staff (about 17,000 employees) to cut costs. The airlines continues to face an employee strike covering more than 30,000 workers, which has halted production of some jets.
Navy Parachute Accident: A Navy parachutist missed the landing zone and crashed into a mother and her child during Fleet Week in San Francisco (video). The mother and child were taken to the hospital for minor injuries. Fleet Week is an annual event held for military demonstrations and air shows. The Navy said it was not immediately able to assess what happened.
Trump Attends Al Smith Fundraising Dinner: Donald Trump attended the white-tie dinner emceed by comedian Jim Gaffigan and hosted by Cardinal Timothy Dolan. The purpose of the event, sometimes called the âCatholic Met Galaâ is to raise funds for Catholic Charities initiatives in New York. Kamala Harris skipped the event and campaigned in battleground states. She is the first presidential candidate in over 40 years to not be present at the event, which has been a tradition since 1945. Harris instead sent a pre-recorded video that was played. Trump took advantage of the spotlight, giving a roast of Kamala and everyone present at the gala. At one point, he thanked God for his mercy in saving his life from two assasination attempts. (Trumpâs roast)
More: Dolan expressed his frustration about Harrisâ absence saying on a podcast last week, âIt's a shame because the nature of the evening is to bring people together. The nature of the evening is civility, patriotism, humor. It's not a campaign speech. It's not a campaign stop."
Trump Gaining Momentum Weeks Before Election
Some context
Since replacing President Joe Biden last July, Kamala Harris received enthusiastic support from democrat donors and base. To date, she has raised more than $1B in fundraising.
Until recently, she has consistently held a lead in the polls of most swing states and larger lead nationally. But in recent weeks, her numbers have fallen causing concern within the Democratic party. There are 17 days left until election day and both candidates are making their final pitch to voters. Harris is boosting her interview appearances even on less friendly shows such as Fox Newsâ Brett Baier in an effort to get her message out more prominently.Â
National Polls
According to 538 which takes an average of a variety of pollsters, Harris leads nationally with 48% to Trumpâs 46%. Itâs often the case that the winner of the election can lose the popular vote due to the electoral college. See the swing state data toward the end of this article.
Trump hits 61% in the betting marketsÂ
One interesting metric to pay attention to are the online betting markets where people put down money on their political predictions. Thus far, $2,016,468,351, has been put down in total to predict the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Since the beginning of October, Trump went from 48% to 60% as of today on Polymarket.
Key battleground states that will determine the election
270 electoral college votes are needed to win the presidency. The following seven states will no doubt determine the results of the election coming up in short order. Below are the polling averages compiled from 538 along with the betting odds from Polymarket - a popular online betting website used frequently for political elections. We think both of these metrics provide a helpful analysis of where the race stands.Â
Nevada
Considered one of Harrisâs stronger swing states that carries 6 electoral votes.Â
538 Poll: Harris: 47%, Trump: 47%
Arizona
Considered one of Trumpâs stronger swing states with 11 electoral votes.Â
538 Poll: Trump: 48%, Harris: 46%
Georgia
A tightly contested state between Trump and Harris with 16 electoral votes. Trump has gained some momentum with the growing support among black men.Â
538 Poll: Trump: 48%, Harris: 46%
Michigan
A state that is a tossup but more generally considered more likely to flip Harris with 15 electoral votes.
538 Poll: Trump: 47%, Harris: 47%
Pennsylvania
Widely regarded as the most important state to win the presidency. It carries 19 electoral votes. Kamala Harris' flip-flop on support of fracking has hurt her stakes here but it could go either way.
538 Poll: Harris: 48%, Trump: 47%
North Carolina
Carries 16 electoral votes and was recently hit with a devastating hurricane which could affect voter turnout significantly.Â
538 Poll: Trump: 48%, Harris: 47%
Wisconsin
A state that is leaning Harris with 10 electoral votes.
538 Poll: Trump: 47%, Harris: 47%
FBI Quietly Revises Crime Statistics Higher in 2022
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The News Memo to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.